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Table 1 Results for the analysis of the La Gloria data.

From: Reporting errors in infectious disease outbreaks, with an application to Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1

  

R0 (IQR)

(IQR)

(IQR)

All Data

Original

1.42

1.96

1.14

 

39%

1.49 (1.44, 2.00)

2.15 (2.04, 2.47)

1.43 (1.27, 1.67)

 

logistic

1.35 (1.32, 1.41)

2.11 (2.00, 2.22)

1.55 (1.35, 1.75)

 

58%

1.55 (1.46, 2.03)

2.25 (2.08, 2.49)

1.45 (1.23, 1.67)

 

logistic

1.13 (1.12, 1.15)

1.80 (1.70, 1.90)

1.32 (1.09, 1.53)

 

68%

1.54 (1.46, 2.02)

2.24 (2.07, 2.48)

1.44 (1.23, 1.66)

 

logistic

1.08 (1.07, 1.09)

1.65 (1.57, 1.75)

1.18 (0.92, 1.36)

First 16 days

Original

1.41

2.09

1.15

 

39%

1.42 (1.38, 1.45)

2.11 (1.97, 2.23)

1.12 (0.83, 1.37)

 

logistic

1.29 (1.26, 1.32)

2.01 (1.86, 2.17)

1.25 (0.88, 1.56)

 

58%

1.43 (1.38, 1.48)

2.13 (1.96, 2.30)

1.11 (0.78, 1.43)

 

logistic

1.11 (1.09, 1.12)

1.60 (1.47, 1.73)

0.90 (0.63, 1.24)

 

68%

1.43 (1.38, 1.48)

2.14 (1.95, 2.31)

1.10 (0.77, 1.42)

 

logistic

1.05 (1.05, 1.07)

1.45 (1.34, 1.56)

0.74 (0.52, 1.04)

  1. Key: The first block of results consider the entire outbreak and fit the reproductive number using a four parameter logistic function. The second block consider only the first 16 days where the epidemic is in exponential growth. For each attack rate shown (39%, 58% and 68%) estimates are shown when data missingness is assumed to be constant and when it is assumed to follow a logistic pattern with the initial reporting fraction at 0.4 increasing to 0.9.