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Figure 2 | Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations

Figure 2

From: Lessons from previous predictions of HIV/AIDS in the United States and Japan: epidemiologic models and policy formulation

Figure 2

Observed and predicted numbers of HIV infections and AIDS diagnoses in Japan from 1985–2004. Data source: ref. [44]. The top three panels show the estimated true HIV incidence (a-c) and the bottom show AIDS incidence (d-f). The routes of transmission are heterosexual men (a and d), men who have sex with men (MSM; b and e), and heterosexual women (c and f). The prediction was obtained using the data up to the dashed line; i.e., from 1985–92. The straight lines in a-c represent the predicted true HIV incidence based on the assumption of linear growth. The coverage ratio was 1/5.1 [30,32]. The shape and scale parameters for the Weibull distribution used to describe the incubation period were 2.286 and 10.0, respectively, as adopted in ref. [28].

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Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations

ISSN: 1742-5573