Table 3 Results with the first 16 days of data (i.e. the exponential growth phase).

25% H1N1

Original

1.41

2.09

1.15

39%

1.45 (1.33, 1.59)

2.36 (2.06, 2.66)

0.97 (0.59, 1.42)

logistic

1.34 (1.28, 1.42)

2.28 (2.00, 2.54)

1.17 (0.80, 1.19)

58%

1.45 (1.33, 1.56)

2.26 (1.93, 2.57)

1.04 (0.65, 1.48)

logistic

1.14 (1.11, 1.18)

1.87 (1.68, 2.09)

1.02 (0.73 (1.45)

68%

1.45 (1.36, 1.55)

2.28 (2.04, 2.54)

1.06 (0.66, 1.48)

logistic

1.08 (1.06, 1.11)

1.72 (1.53, 1.92)

0.92 (0.61, 0.70)

50% H1N1

39%

1.46 (1.38, 1.53)

2.27 (2.02, 2.47)

1.03 (0.68, 1.52)

logistic

1.31 (1.27, 1.37)

2.15 (1.91, 2.34)

1.21 (0.80, 1.61)

58%

1.41 (1.33, 1.50)

2.10 (1.80, 2.41)

1.18 (0.74, 1.57)

logistic

1.12 (1.10, 1.15)

1.74 (1.57, 1.90)

0.96 (0.68, 1.40)

68%

1.45 (1.39, 1.52)

2.23 (2.02, 2.42)

1.08 (0.74, 1.51)

logistic

1.07 (1.05, 1.08)

1.57 (1.42, 1.73)

0.85 (0.57, 1.19)

75% H1N1

39%

1.43 (1.38, 1.49)

2.16 (1.97, 2.37)

1.10 (0.75, 1.48)

logistic

1.30 (1.26, 1.34)

2.07 (1.87, 2.25)

1.19 (0.83, 1.56)

58%

1.37 (1.32, 1.42)

1.93 (1.73, 2.18)

1.16 (0.74, 1.53)

logistic

1.11 (1.09, 1.13)

1.65 (1.49, 1.79)

0.93 (0.64, 1.29)

68%

1.44 (1.38, 1.50)

2.17 (1.97, 2.36)

1.03 (0.73, 1.43)

logistic

1.06 (1.05, 1.07)

1.49 (1.37, 1.62)

0.77 (0.51, 1.08)